Bleak view on house prices

B.C. residents have Canada's bleakest expectations about the outlook for house prices, a new survey says.

Forty-eight per cent of those surveyed in B.C. believe house prices will fall in the next year -- more than three times the 14 per cent that expect them to climb, the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals said yesterday.

The next most negative province is Alberta, where 40 per cent anticipate weaker prices, the association said.

"Westerners, who have endured particularly hot housing markets, are the most negative," the association said.

Nationally, 35 per cent of Canadians believe home prices will fall in the next year -- more than double the proportion of a year ago, the survey said.

Still, a rating that indicates B.C. residents' optimism about whether now is a good time to buy a house has risen, the survey said.

"The average rating in British Columbia recovered from prior below-average ratings and is now at the national average," the association said.

Nationally, 38 per cent of Canadians still think that now is a good time to buy a house, the online survey of 2,000 Canadians found. Thirty-two per cent believe it is a bad time.

"Residential mortgage consumers remain remarkably positive as they weather the financial storm," the association said.

Meanwhile, only 0.28 per cent of mortgages are in arrears, a proportion that is not only low but also steady, it said. And an overwhelming 84 per cent of homeowners are satisfied with their mortgages.

Borrowers expect changes in their local housing markets, yet remain confident in a stable Canadian mortgage system, said Jim Murphy, association president, noting that it anticipated mortgage credit growth would slow, but remain relatively strong.

The survey was conducted during a month in which home sales plunged 14 per cent to a six-year low and during which prices tumbled 10 per cent from a year earlier.

Despite that sharp fall in home sales and prices, the mortgage association said that the Canadian housing market has avoided the price and sales meltdown in the U.S. housing market and that the Canadian mortgage market is supported by low and steady interest rates, better underwriting processes, different products and normal resale activity levels.

"Canada is a financially conservative country where consumers are able to meet the terms of their mortgages and buying decisions are based on affordability," said association chief economist Will Dunning. "This contributes to a solid real-estate market that will not experience the same drop-off we see south of the border."

(Source: Vancouver Province)