Housing sales lowest since early 1980's

Real estate sales across the Lower Mainland crawled along in January, real estate boards reported Tuesday, with consumers reluctant to buy in recessionary times when they expect prices will continue to decline.

In Metro Vancouver, realtors recorded 762 Multiple Listing Service sales in January, down 58 per cent from the same month a year ago. The so-called benchmark price for a typical detached home was down 11 per cent to $ 659,638 compared with January of 2008.

In the Fraser Valley, realtors booked a similar 59-percent decline in sales at 359. The benchmark price for a typical single-family home was down 9.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.

Both the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, which covers most of Metro except Surrey, and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, which takes in Surrey and White Rock, said sales were at levels not seen since the early 1980s.

“ We’re seeing the same factors at play: uncertainty in people’s minds about where the economy is going and where their jobs are going,” Robyn Adamache, a market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said in an interview. “ As well, I think at least some people are expecting further price reductions and perhaps are holding off on buying, waiting for that to happen.”

The B. C. Real Estate Association on Monday released its latest forec a s t t h a t p r e d i c t e d p r i c e s wi l l decline 14 per cent in Metro Vancouver during 2009.

Adamache said January is tradit i onally a sl ow sales month and can’t be used to gauge how the year will go, but “ we’re sort of well below [ sales levels] we’ve seen in previous Januaries.”

Both real estate boards also saw inventories of unsold homes decline i n January. In Metro Vancouver, covered by the Greater Vancouver board, January new listings were down 30 per cent to 3,700, and current active l i sti ngs of 1 3,966 are down 6,000 from October.

However, Adamache said sales have slowed so much that there is now an 11-month supply of unsold inventory, the highest in 10 years.

She said the ratio of sales to new listings has dropped to a level not seen since at least 1984, the f irst year for which she has records.

In the Fraser Valley, total inventory of unsold homes in January stood at 8,630 units, 26-per-cent higher than January 2008, but 30-per-cent lower than the record high inventory recorded last September.

Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at the Sauder School of Business at the University of B. C., said comparisons between the early months of this year with the same months of last year aren’t a true indication of what’s going on because the market was still robust in early 2008.

Later in 2009, when we reach the same months that the market began to drop off in 2008, we will know whether sales are still declining or beginning to stabilize, he said.

“ I think we’re still declining just because the [ sale d e c l i ne ] i s 6 0 p e r ce nt ve r s u s 4 0 t o 5 0 p e r ce nt ,” Somerville said, which is the amount sales were off during the summer and fall months of 2008, “ but we won’t get a sense of how much and at what rate until later.”

Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said the last 10 days of January did see realtor showings and sales pick up relative to the beginning of the month.

Watt said the buyers are “ back to looking for a home to purchase and are very much thinking long-term.”

(prepared by Derrick Penner/Vancouver Sun)