Housing starts over the past 25 years

A reminder for builders and their customers: It was worse at the start of the decade

In the 25 years before this one, metropolitan Vancouver builders started about 16,000 homes on average and annually. (The average number of starts from 1984 to 2008 is 15,900; the median number, 15,950.)

Local builders will probably start about 13,000 residences this year, Canada's national housing agency said this week.

" . . . low starts data for the first two months of 2009 are an indication that developers are pulling back until some of the supply of new and resale homes on the market are absorbed," the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation statement on February starts comments.

WHAT 13,000 HOUSING STARTS THIS YEAR WOULD MEAN:

- A 20-per-cent decline from the 25-year average and median numbers;

- A 33-per-cent decline from the actual 2008 number, of almost 19,600;

- A seven-per-cent decline from the previous nine years' average. The decade started terribly for developers and builders and customers, with only 8,400 starts in each of 2000 and 2001.

NB: Money was dear in 1984, the start year for this chart. Interest on a five-year mortgage was 13.6 per cent that year, Bank of Canada records show. Money was not so dear last year. Interest on a five-year mortgage was seven per cent, Bank of Canada records show.

This year, as home builders' advocate Peter Simpson comments in his column today, ''mortgage rates are approaching free-money territory.''

(SOURCE: Vancouver Sun)