Mortgage rates have soared

Even the big boys are stumped by the question of what to do about mortgage rates right now.

Fixed-rate mortgages at the big banks soared late last week by as much as 0.85 of a percentage point, which, by the usual standards of rate changes, is somewhere between really, really big and humungous. When was the last time we saw such a significant shift in mortgage rates? Oh, a little less than a month ago, when banks cut their rates by as much as 0.85 of a point.

What makes these changes all the more confusing is that, exceptional as they are, they're starting to look familiar. Early last summer, rates were set to rise because of strong economic growth and the need to keep inflation under control. Then financial markets came undone and rates were reined in to ease the strain. We then moved into a declining rate phase, where the concern was a slowing economy. Now, the rate outlook has changed yet again.

"In global markets, we've had a sea change in sentiment in the past month or so," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. "There has been a monumental shift away from seeing weak growth as being the top risk. Higher inflation is now seen as public enemy No. 1."

(prepared by Rob Carrick/Globe & Mail)