Real estate sales up

British Columbia real estate sales in March paled in comparison with the same month a year ago, but continued to creep higher from the depths of January, the B.C. Real Estate Association reported Wednesday.

Across the province, realtors tracked 5,464 Multiple-Listing-Service sales, a 25-per-cent decline from 7,319 sales recorded in March 2008.

However, the number seems to indicate a slowing of the decline from February, when the volume of transactions was down by almost half from February 2008.

"[March sales are] quite an improvement from what we experienced in the winter months," Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, said in an interview, "and really, right now [the trend is] what we might expect."

Extrapolating March sales over the rest of the year, Muir said sales will match levels near those experienced during 2000-2001.

"That's what we would expect given a weaker economy [and] rising unemployment."

From November to January, Muir said sales levels resembled those of the mid-1980s, during which there were much worse economic conditions.

Muir said unemployment levels at the beginning of the current decade were higher than today, although "we're expecting continued erosion of employment levels over the coming months."

However, he said the combination of falling prices and interest rates continues to draw buyers back into the market.

At a provincial level, Muir said, while prices have dropped 12 per cent, combined with lower interest rates, the monthly cost of a standard mortgage on the average home has declined 24 per cent, assuming a 20-per-cent down payment and the average posted interest rate.

"That certainly is a situation potential homebuyers find attractive," Muir said.

The average home price in B.C. hit $424,122 in March, down just over 12 per cent from $483,291 in the same month a year ago.

The Okanagan Mainline region, which includes Kelowna and Vernon; and South Okanagan, which includes Penticton and Osoyoos, had the steepest price declines, in the 17-per-cent range.

In the Kelowna-Vernon corridor, the March average price was $344,845. In the South Okanagan, the average price was $296,023.

On Vancouver Island outside of Victoria, the average home price was $302,155, down 6.4 per cent from a year ago. Sales, at 417 units, were still down 38 per cent.

In the Greater Vancouver MLS region, the average price of $616,496 was down almost 14 per cent from a year ago. Sales in the region were down 24 per cent at 2,310 units.

For the first three months of 2009, B.C. recorded 11,232 sales, which represents a 41-per-cent decline from the same period in 2008.

Muir said the last month was encouraging in that the Greater Vancouver region sales inched upward and the number of listings added to the inventory slowed.

He said the ratio of sales to active listings in Greater Vancouver, at 14 per cent in March, was almost in reach of what economists would consider a balanced market.

"We can't call it a balanced market," Muir said, "but it certainly is encouraging considering that that ratio was in the single digits a few months ago."

Currently, he said, "there is much less downward pressure on prices than there was just two or three months ago."

("Real estate sales up since start of year, but down from March '08" prepard by Derrick Penner/Vancouver Sun)


COST OF BUYING A HOME FALLS

The following monthly mortgage costs are based on the average Multiple Listing Service residential sales price in various regions, a 20-per-cent down payment, 25-year amortization and the average posted five-year fixed mortgage rate for the month.

MORTGAGE PAYMENT* MAR., '09 / MAR., '08 / $ CHANGE / % CHANGE

Victoria $2,166 $2,873 -$707 -25%
Vancouver Island $1,483 $1,839 -$356 -19%
Powell River/Sunshine Coast $1,221 $1,339 -$118 -9%
Greater Vancouver $2,604 $3,512 -$908 -26%
Fraser Valley $1,927 $2,527 -$600 -24%
Chilliwack $1,426 $1,921 -$495 -26%
Kamloops $1,308 $1,729 -$421 -24%
Okanagan Mainline $1,692 $2,372 -$680 -29%
South Okanagan $1,452 $2,037 -$585 -29%
Kootenay $1,209 $1,582 -$373 -24%
Northern Lights $1,063 $959 +$104 +11%
BC Northern $960 $1,169 -$209 -18%
BC Total $2,081 $2,754 -$673 -24%

SOURCE: B.C. Real estate association